#4100: TruStage Chief Economist Talks Inflation, Interest Rates, Housing, Jobs, AI, and More...

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Steve Rick, TruStage, Chief Economist, stopped by the show to share his insights and expertise on the 2026 economic outlook for credit unions.

More specifically, Steve talked about inflation coming down, what's happening with GDP, and the workforce market -- as well as the Fed continuing to lower interest rates and at what pace.

Steve shared his forecast for credit unions' performance in 2026, which consisted of loan growth, savings, earnings, and more.

To wrap up, Steve discussed how AI is going to impact credit unions' employee growth.

Q&A
What are the key economic factors affecting credit unions in 2026 according to Steve Rick?
Steve Rick highlights inflation, interest rates, loan growth, and the impact of AI on employee growth as significant factors for credit unions in 2026.
What is the forecast for inflation in the first half of 2026?
The forecast indicates that inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, will likely exceed 3% in the first half of 2026, primarily due to tariffs and a tight labor market.
What role does AI play in the future of credit unions and employee growth?
AI is expected to enhance productivity, potentially offsetting the slowdown in labor force growth, but it has also contributed to a stagnation in hiring, particularly among recent graduates.
What is the expected loan growth for credit unions in 2026?
Loan growth for credit unions is forecasted to be around 5% in 2026, which is an improvement from 4.5% in 2025 but still below the historical average of 7%.
What challenges do credit unions face regarding loan repayments?
Credit unions are experiencing faster loan repayments than new loan originations, leading to a decline in total loan balances, which poses a challenge for maintaining growth.
What is the outlook for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions in December?
The Federal Reserve is expected to make cautious decisions regarding interest rates, with a possibility of lowering them by about half a percentage point in 2026, depending on economic conditions.

Check it out and let us know your thoughts. And be sure to watch the entire episode below for all the details.