Corelation25: Economic Consultant Bill Hampel on the Condition and Outlook for the U.S. Economy and Credit Unions...

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Bill Hampel, Economic Consultant (former CUNA Chief Economist ret.), joined us in the Studio Lounge to highlight his Corelation Executive Forum session on "The Condition and Outlook for the U.S. Economy & Credit Unions."

In this in-depth conversation, Bill talked about interest rates projecting to decline, influencing the economy and credit unions in their own way -- as well as the labor market experiencing low unemployment but facing stagnant job growth due to an aging population and decreased immigration.

He also discussed the impact of tariffs, saying that, long-term, they could negatively affect the economy

Bill also provided his economic forecast, indicating slow growth, potential inflation, and an increased risk of recession -- highlighting the need for strategic adaptation by credit unions.

Q&A summary
What is the significance of the Fed's recent interest rate cuts and how many more cuts are expected this year?
The Fed recently cut interest rates, and we expect two more cuts of a quarter point each this year. This is significant as it impacts borrowing costs and economic activity.
What are the potential effects of tariffs on the economy and consumer prices?
Tariffs can act as an additional tax, increasing prices for consumers and potentially leading to retaliatory tariffs from other countries, which can harm various sectors of the economy.
What is the current state of the labor market, and what factors are contributing to its stagnation?
The labor market shows low unemployment but stagnant job creation, primarily due to a flat labor force growth caused by reduced immigration and an aging population.
What are the expected economic growth rates for the upcoming year, and what factors could influence these projections?
Economic growth is projected to be slow, around 1.5% to 2%, influenced by factors like interest rate cuts and potential inflation increases due to tariffs.
What are the implications of a stagnant labor force on the economy's growth potential?
A stagnant labor force limits the need for new job creation, which can hinder overall economic growth and lead to long-term challenges for the economy.
What are the potential risks of a recession in the near future according to current economic indicators?
Current indicators suggest a 30-35% chance of recession within the next year, which is higher than the typical 15% probability, indicating increased economic uncertainty.

​Check it out and let us know your thoughts. And be sure to watch all our Studio Lounge episodes from the Corelation Executive Forum on our archive page -- as well as visiting our sponsors who support our conference coverage: Corelation, InvestiFi, Backbone, and "Despite Impossible" podcast.