The Velera Payments Index: April 2026

Denise Stevens

​Velera – the nation’s premier payments CUSO and an integrated financial technology solutions provider – published the April edition of the Velera Payments Index, including its quarterly metrics update, along with a closer look at gasoline consumption and balance transfer behavior.
 
Consumer activity remained strong in March, with ongoing growth in debit and credit card transactions and purchases. Despite skyrocketing gas prices since the start of the war with Iran, spending remained robust in the Goods, Services and Money Services sectors, fueled in part by higher income tax returns and some temporary relief from TSA bottlenecks during the partial government shutdown. Eroding consumer sentiment and soaring inflation – both driven by the war with Iran – are evident in key economic indicators, even as a temporary two-week ceasefire has offered limited stabilization.
 
In its preliminary April 2026 results, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 11% from March (56.6), posting a 5.7-point loss to 47.6. All demographics (age, income and political party) posted declines in sentiment. Many consumers blame the war in Iran for unfavorable economic conditions, according to open-ended survey comments. For March, the Conference Board reported that consumer sentiment inched higher in the Consumer Confidence Index, up 0.8 points to 91.8. While there was a modest improvement in three of the five components of the index, the overall score has declined since 2021.
 
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that jobs grew by 178,000 positions in March. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, or 7.2 million people. The WSJ poll of economists forecast job growth of 59,000 for March, which was 119,000 below what materialized. March job gains were primarily in health care and construction, as well as transportation and warehousing, while job losses in the federal government continued for the month. The March ADP jobs report, which tracks changes in U.S. private employment, reported an increase of 62,000 jobs, mostly centered on the education and health services, construction and information sectors. Job reductions were noted in the trade, transportation and utilities, and manufacturing sectors. Most of the growth was found in small-sized companies (1-19 employees) within the ADP payroll population, which represents more than 26 million U.S. private-sector employees.
 
For March, the BLS reported a 0.9% increase in inflation, increasing the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.3%. The Energy index was the largest contributor to the monthly increase, up 10.9%. Gasoline, as part of Energy, was up 21.2% and accounted for nearly 75% of the overall increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in March, finishing the month at 2.6%. Categories contributing to the Core CPI increase included airline fares, apparel, household furnishings and operations, education and new vehicles. March also saw declines in medical care, personal care and used cars and trucks.
 
The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged in the meeting that concluded on March 18. The U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025 was revised to 0.5%. Consumer spending accounts for just over two-thirds of GDP and was revised downward to 1.9% from 2%. One of the primary factors in the lower Q4 GDP (+0.5%) compared to the 2025 Q3 GDP (+4.4%) was the U.S. government shutdown. With erratic job growth and the economic impacts of the war with Iran, the Federal Reserve will need to balance the swift inflationary growth from energy prices and job growth. The next FOMC meeting concludes on April 29.
 
“Consumers are still showing up and spending, even with many factors weighing on how they feel about the economy,” said Denise Stevens, EVP, Chief Product & Technology Officer, Velera. “Surging gas prices, elevated inflation and overall uncertainty have not stopped spending activity – but they are changing behavior. We’re seeing consumers be more intentional about how they pay and spend, including continued notable growth in digital wallets. At the same time, Buy Now, Pay Later has gone mainstream as a budgeting tool, not just a checkout convenience.”
 
Key takeaways for March include:

• Increases in tax refunds helped offset the impact of surging fuel prices as year-over-year growth in transactions and purchases for March remained strong for both debit and credit. Debit purchases increased by 5.9%, with the Money Services and Goods sectors accounting for almost two-thirds of that growth. Credit purchases were up 4.8%, with the Goods and the Service sectors accounting for 63% of the entire increase. In March, debit transactions were up 3.4% and credit transactions rose by 3.6%.
• The Consumer Price Index surged 0.9% in March, taking the 12-month inflation rate to 3.3% and marking the largest increase in two years. Gasoline was the primary driver, accounting for roughly 75% of the increase. This was the first inflationary update since the war with Iran began.
• Increased gasoline prices accounted for roughly 15% of the growth in debit and credit purchases for March. The average per-gallon price of gasoline is up 40%, or $1.19, since the war started in February and is up 30%, or $0.96, year over year. Our data shows increased gasoline consumption in the weeks since the war began.
• Digital wallets continued to gain momentum. In March 2026, digital wallets accounted for 12.6% of all debit transactions, up from 10.2% a year earlier, and 7.3% of all credit transactions, up from 5.6% a year earlier.

 
The full report is available for download here or can be shared as a PDF upon request. Please let us know of any questions or additional needs, or if you’d like to coordinate an interview.

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