The Velera Payments Index: December 2025

​Velera – the nation’s premier payments CUSO and an integrated financial technology solutions provider – published the December edition of the Velera Payments Index, presenting a deep dive into international transactions in the Goods sector and an update on 2025 holiday spending.
 
In November, year-over-year consumer spending growth remained consistent and positive. While consumer sentiment surveys have shown mixed results, concerns about high prices remain. Following the end of the six-week government shutdown, reporting on various economic indicators — including job growth, unemployment and inflation — resumed with the posting of the November results.
 
In a much-anticipated move, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a quarter-point interest rate cut earlier this month. While this reduction is the third consecutive cut from recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, there was an indication that there could be a pause in subsequent changes, given the number of dissenting votes from the committee in the December meeting. However, with softer job data, the possibility of an additional rate cut could be back on the table. The federal funds rate, currently at 3.50% to 3.75%, is at its lowest level in three years. The next FOMC meeting will conclude on Jan. 28, 2026.
 
In November, consumer confidence fell in the Consumer Confidence Index by 6.9 points to 88.7. Older demographics have less confidence in improvement, with those over 55 years old being the least upbeat. Consumers aged 35 and over experienced a decline in confidence, while those under 35 years of age showed some improvement. By income, the only population that posted an improvement in confidence was those making under $15,000 per year. The preliminary results for the December 2025 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment increased 2.3 points to 53.3. While this 4.5% increase is primarily driven by younger consumers, the overall outlook remains bleak, likely due to concerns over higher prices.
 
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its November update, showing a 0.2% rise in inflation for November. Data for October 2025 is mainly unavailable due to the government shutdown, potentially distorting the view of annual results. This takes the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 2.7%. The energy index rose 1.1%. Both shelter and food each rose 0.1%. Decreases were posted for the two-month period in lodging away from home, recreation and apparel. Core CPI, which excludes the Food and Energy sectors, also increased by 0.2% for the two-month period ending in November, bringing the 12-month Core CPI to 2.6%.
 
After the six-week government shutdown, the BLS reported that the overall unemployment rate for November increased to 4.6%, or 7.8 million people, the highest in four years. While the economy added 64,000 jobs in November, there were 105,000 jobs lost in October 2025, highlighting concerns about the overall strength of the U.S. economy. November saw job growth in the healthcare and construction sectors, while job losses occurred in the federal government. For November, the ADP jobs report, which tracks changes in U.S. private employment, showed a decrease of 32,000. Small companies — those with fewer than 50 employees — posted all the job losses, while companies with 50 or more employees posted gains. The ADP payroll population represents 26 million U.S. private-sector employees.
 
“This holiday season, with mixed signals in consumer confidence, we wanted to offer an incentive to activate low-usage cardholders and keep our card top of wallet. By working with Velera’s Advisors Plus, we were able to align our campaigns with market trends and develop strategies that made sense based on cost, expected returns and lift. Their insight helped us analyze past results, forecast future performance and apply best practices to maximize impact. Thanks to their guidance, our current holiday campaign has achieved a 33% response rate, with an increase of over 17% in transactional dollar volume, putting us on track to exceed last year’s results. This momentum reflects the benefit of yearly planning and consistent campaign execution,” said Natalie Baker, Vice President, Marketing, Dominion Energy Credit Union.
 
Key takeaways for November include:

• While consumer sentiment showed mixed results, actual purchasing activity continued to grow consistently in November. Debit purchases increased by 4.2%, with the Goods and Money Services sectors accounting for 80% of that growth. Credit purchases were up 1.9%, with the Goods and Services sectors accounting for just under 80% of the increase. For November, year-over-year growth in debit transactions was up 2.3% and credit transactions increased by 2%.
• Consumers spent record amounts online from Thanksgiving Day through Cyber Monday (Nov. 27 through Dec. 1), building on the strong performance in 2024. Overall debit purchases increased by 1.1% and debit purchases in the Goods sector rose by 3.8% within the Payments Index dataset for this intensive five-day spending period. Overall credit purchases increased by 0.2%, while credit purchases in the Goods sector decreased by 0.1%.
• There was a drop in International Goods credit purchase growth coinciding with the initial tariff announcements in April, followed by an even steeper decline in growth after the elimination of the de minimis exemption in late August.
• In a highly anticipated move, the Fed lowered interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point in December. While multiple sets of updated data will be available by the January meeting, a pause in subsequent rate changes may occur, as growing dissent among the voting committee is evident.
• For November, the ADP private-sector jobs report showed a decrease in U.S. private employment by 32,000. In the November jobs report, the BLS posted an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.6%, the highest rate in four years. While the economy added 64,000 jobs in November, it lost 105,000 jobs in October, which could highlight a weakness that could point to future interest rate reductions.

 
The full report is available for download here or can be shared as a PDF upon request. Please let us know of any questions or additional needs, or if you’d like to coordinate an interview.

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