The Velera Payments Index: March 2026

​Velera – the nation’s premier payments CUSO and an integrated financial technology solutions provider – published the March edition of the Velera Payments Index, including a deep dive into delinquencies.
 
Debit and credit card transactions and purchases strengthened in February, despite a backdrop of continued slow job growth, subdued consumer sentiment and rising global tensions. On a positive note, the 12-month rate of inflation through February held steady at 2.4%.
 
In its February 2026 results, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment essentially remained flat, posting a 0.2-point gain to finish at 56.6 – down 13% year over year. Nearly half of the consumers surveyed this February cited higher prices eroding their personal finances. The Conference Board reported that consumer sentiment inched higher in the Consumer Confidence Index in February, up 2.2 points to 91.2, while the January results were upwardly revised to 89.0. The uptick in February results came from softening pessimistic expectations, although the index remains well below its recent four-year peak in November 2024 (112.8). It should be noted that these results were gathered prior to the United States/Israel military action in Iran. 
 
The BLS reported that job growth fell in February, shedding 92,000 jobs, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, or 7.5 million people. The WSJ poll of economists forecast 50,000 jobs added in February. Additionally, the collective job numbers for December and January were reduced by 69,000. February job losses were mainly in the healthcare sector. These reductions were partially reflected in strikes in California and Hawaii. Employment in information and the federal government also trended downward. The February ADP jobs report, which tracks changes in U.S. private employment, reported an increase of 63,000 jobs. Growth was centered on education and health services, adding 58,000 jobs. Employment in construction and information also increased during this period, whereas job declines were noted in the professional and business services and manufacturing sectors. The ADP payroll population represents 26 million U.S. private-sector employees.
 
For February, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a 0.3% increase in inflation, keeping the 12-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) steady at 2.4%. The largest contributor to the monthly increase was shelter, which was up 0.2%. Food increased by 0.4%, while energy increased by 0.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.2% in February, finishing the month at the same rate as January at 2.5%. Categories contributing to the Core CPI increase included medical care, apparel, household furnishings and operations, airline fares and education. Declines in communication, used cars and trucks, and motor vehicle insurance were realized in February. The impact of the February CPI data appears to have diminished after the U.S./Israel war with Iran began on Feb. 28. This event will likely raise March’s CPI, as energy prices, namely gasoline, have been increasing. As an approximate calculation, each $10 increase in the cost of a barrel of oil roughly equates to a 0.2% increase in inflation. U.S. gasoline prices have increased by $0.57 since the start of the war.
 
The Federal Reserve will weigh the potential impact of interest rate reductions for March as it balances inflation and job growth. While jobs have stagnated, the inflationary impact of sharply rising energy prices, specifically gasoline, over the past few weeks could influence a change, although most are expecting no rate change. The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting concludes on March 18, although rates may not be affected until next month’s meeting, which concludes on April 29, when the Fed can better understand the implications of the higher energy costs on the economy. 
 
"What we’re seeing in this month’s data is a reminder that delinquency trends don’t move in a straight line. Yes, overall delinquencies are up compared with a year ago, but the story underneath is more nuanced,” said David Knowles, SVP of Disputes & Collections Operations at Velera and President of TriVerity. “Younger consumers are feeling the most strain, and lower‑income households continue to show sharper swings in both delinquencies and credit utilization. At the same time, subprime borrowers have been remarkably steady — something we wouldn’t have predicted a few years ago. Put together, it paints a picture of a consumer landscape that’s still adjusting to higher costs and shifting financial cushions, with very different experiences depending on age and income."
 
Key takeaways for February include:

• Year-over-year growth in transactions and purchases in February was strong across both debit and credit. Debit purchases increased by 7%, with the Money Services and Goods sectors accounting for two-thirds of that growth. Credit purchases were up 4.4%, with the Goods and the Service sectors accounting for 68% of the entire increase. For February, debit transactions were up 7% and credit transactions rose by 4%.
• Since our last delinquency Deep Dive (February 2025), delinquencies have begun trending upward after steadily declining for the first 10 months of last year. Overall credit card delinquencies for February 2025 were 2.66%, up 0.16% year over year. Additionally, we saw higher delinquency rates among younger age groups, as evidenced by the notable increase in the youngest generational segment (Younger Gen Z), up 10.67% year over year to 13.69% in February 2026.
• CPI rose 0.3% in February, with the 12-month inflation rate remaining steady at 2.4%. Shelter was the primary driver of the monthly increase.
• Gasoline prices have increased sharply, rising $0.57 per gallon (or 19%) since the start of the U.S./Israel war with Iran on Feb. 28. It is unknown how long the market will experience higher energy prices because of the conflict or what the impact will be on the U.S. economy. As an informal calculation, each $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil equates to a 0.2% increase (approximately) in inflation.

 
The full report is available for download here or can be shared as a PDF upon request. Please let us know of any questions or additional needs, or if you’d like to coordinate an interview.

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