The Velera Payments Index: November 2025

​Velera – the nation’s premier payments CUSO and an integrated financial technology solutions provider – published the November edition of the Velera Payments Index, revisiting a previous Deep Dive into the Money Services sector and checking in on the kickoff to the holiday spending season, which started with early October sales from the three largest retailers: Amazon, Walmart and Target.
 
In October, consumer spending continued to show resilient growth, while consumer sentiment dropped to levels last seen in 2022 during the peak of the post-COVID inflationary period. The longest federal government shutdown in the country’s history, which lasted 43 days, ended Nov. 12. While Social Security and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments continued during the shutdown, there were notable impacted services, including food assistance (SNAP) and air travel. Additionally, government reporting on various economic indicators, including job growth, unemployment and inflation, was paused.
 
Following the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting that concluded on Oct. 29, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a much-anticipated quarter-point interest rate cut, lowering the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The final FOMC meeting of the year will conclude on Dec. 10. Powell said that another rate cut for the December meeting “is not a forgone conclusion,” citing differing views among its voting committee members. With the government shutdown over, there is still time in the coming weeks to provide fresh economic data in advance of the December FOMC meeting. Meanwhile, there are no details for publishing the deliverables missed during the shutdown.
 
The October 2025 University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 3.3 points to 50.3. This 6% reduction is influenced by the impact of the government shutdown and concerns about personal finances and eroding business conditions in the coming year. For the Consumer Confidence Index, consumer sentiment remained virtually unchanged for October, down one point to 94.6. Consumer confidence slightly declined for those under 35 and, to a lesser degree, for those over 55. Confidence improved for those between the ages of 35 and 55. By income, confidence improved for those making over $75K, but dropped for those making less than $75K a year.
 
Due to the government shutdown, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) update is still unavailable. Instead, we look to the October update of the ADP jobs report, which highlights an increase in U.S. private employment jobs by 42,000. This growth beats the Dow Jones consensus forecast of a 22,000 gain in job creation for the month. The ADP report concludes that job creation came from companies with at least 250 employees, adding 76,000 jobs, whereas smaller companies lost 34,000 jobs. Job sectors with growth in October include trade, transportation and utilities, education and health services, and financial activities. Sectors with notable job declines include information services, professional and business services, and manufacturing. The ADP payroll population represents 19% of overall U.S. private-sector employment (136 million).
 
"The rapid rise of Money Services, driven by peer-to-peer platforms and emerging fintech solutions, underscores a collective shift from cash to digital payments. But it's the accelerating shift from dollars in checking accounts to dollars in digital wallets that highlights a major change in how consumers move and store money, even if temporarily,” said Jon Budd, CEO, Juniper Payments. “Consumers expect convenience, immediacy and control — and instant, secure access to their funds. While this may seem daunting, credit unions are more than capable of delivering on these expectations, even if incrementally. The shift is not about technology alone — it's about meeting members where they already are."
 
Key takeaways for October include:

• While consumer sentiment declined, growth in actual purchasing activity remained consistent in October. Debit purchases increased by 6.4%, with the Money Services and Goods sectors accounting for two-thirds of the growth. Credit purchases were up 1.7%, with the Goods, Services and Restaurant sectors accounting for 94% of the entire increase. Gasoline and Travel were nominal, with declines in credit purchases. For October, debit transactions were up 3.9% and credit transactions rose by 1.6%.
• Money Services, mainly comprising P2P payments, continued to be the largest contributor to growth in debit purchases, representing 13% of overall debit card purchases. Two-thirds of purchases in this sector are P2P related, and the balance is made up of BNPL and cryptocurrency activity.
• The holiday spending season kicked off in October with the expected annual sales from the three largest retailers. The Goods sector notably contributed to the year-over-year growth in credit and debit purchases. Amazon’s sale yielded the largest year-over-year growth, followed by Walmart and Target.
• With the last FOMC of 2025 concluding on Dec. 10, there may be time for scheduled published economic data to be delivered in late November and early December. While the Fed hinted at a possible rate reduction, Chair Jerome Powell also cited differing views among the voting members of the committee following the last meeting in October.
• In October, the ADP private-sector jobs report showed an increase in U.S. private employment jobs of 42,000, beating the Dow Jones forecast by roughly 20,000 jobs. The next BLS report is scheduled for release on Dec. 5.

 
The full report is available for download here or can be shared as a PDF upon request. Please let us know of any questions or additional needs, or if you’d like to coordinate an interview.

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