NAFCU's Curt Long Talks CPI Dipping Slightly, Points to Cooling Inflation

Curt Long

"According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the overall consumer price level climbed by 0.4 percent in the month of October. This was lower than expected and is hopefully an indication that the economy is cooling off. The cost of shelter in October set another record for the highest monthly growth rate in over 30 years at 0.8 percent, but that figure was spurred by a large increase in hotel prices. Housing rental costs decelerated during the month and are likely to begin a precipitous decline over the coming months as new lease costs decline. Used car prices fell at an accelerated rate and for the fourth consecutive month. While new car prices advanced in October, the rate of increase slowed as production improves. Although headline inflation has been slowing for several months, measures of the breadth of price increases had continued to climb. However, median inflation was steady last month and trimmed mean inflation slowed on a year-over-year basis for the first time in nearly two years. The report supports the step down to a 50-basis point hike in December that the FOMC foreshadowed last week, and another report or two similar to this one would present the fodder for an outright halt to rate increases."

​- NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President or Research Curt Long

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