#2126: Filene's Taylor Nelms Compares COVID Crisis to Last Century's Great Depression and Spanish Flu...

5/13/2020

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In this second part (of three) with Filene Research Institute Senior Research Director Taylor Nelms, we compare the current COVID-19 crisis with last century's Great Depression and Spanish flu outbreak of 1918. Taylor details the differences this economic downturn has from other downturns in the past -- a recession by necessity, he says.

He also discusses how this current crisis exposed our economy's fragility -- especially from the household point of view, having no savings to weather bad times. Taylor says this situation shows how we need to take care of people (your members) in a better way -- even in good times to take the sting out of a crisis.

Lastly, Taylor talks about the disparate impact the pandemic is having on different populations -- economically and health.

Another gem of a talk with Taylor -- and we still have part three to go. Check it out and let us know your thoughts. Don't forget to check out their "Credit Unions and the Coronavirus: Notes on the Impacts and Implications of the COVID-19 Crisis," as well.

shari storm link

5/14/2020 07:18:25 am

This was very interesting. Thank you. I especially appreciate the point that you can see the job losses but you can't see lives saved. I'd love to see another segment that focuses on the 1918 flu and gives more detail to which cities social distanced and how their economy responded post-flu. I had never heard that before and it seems fascinating. As always - good work, Mike and good work, Filene!

Mike Lawson link

5/14/2020 04:57:40 pm

Thank you for your comment, Shari. Here is some more info on the Spanish flu from Taylor for you and anybody else who is interested. Fascinating stuff for sure ...

The data about the Spanish flu comes from this research: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560

Decent write-up here: https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/03/fight-the-pandemic-save-the-economy-lessons-from-the-1918-flu.html and here: http://news.mit.edu/2020/pandemic-health-response-economic-recovery-0401

The lesson: There really is no trade-off between social distancing and economic recovery. Economic recovery requires social distancing. 😊

Taylor

5/15/2020 04:11:00 am

Hi Shari! Thanks for your comment. The data about the Spanish flu comes from this research: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3561560 You can read write-ups of the work here (https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/03/fight-the-pandemic-save-the-economy-lessons-from-the-1918-flu.html) and here (http://news.mit.edu/2020/pandemic-health-response-economic-recovery-0401).

The lesson: There really is no trade-off between distancing measures and economic recovery. Economic recovery requires distancing.

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#2126: Filene's Taylor Nelms Compares COVID Crisis to Last Century's Great Depression and Spanish Flu...

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